This article was written by blackrain79.com contributor Fran Ferlan.
You’ve been told that the best way to make money playing poker is to play
against the recreational players, aka the fish.
You already know you need to play tight, play in position, and value bet your
hand relentlessly, so you do just that.
You get dealt pocket Aces, isolate the fish preflop, bet the flop, bet the
turn, shove the river, only to find out that your opponent called you down
with a fourth pair and spiked a set on the river.
You lose your whole stack and your patience along with it. Yet another session
ruined by an idiot donkey. And it keeps happening again and again.
So what gives?
Playing against these players should be profitable, yet they keep getting
lucky against you, and you keep losing money.
Should you jump the stakes where players play more logically and don’t make
such asinine mistakes?
Not exactly.
Before you jump the stakes where players “respect your raises”, you might want
to find out why exactly you’re struggling against bad poker players, and more
importantly, what can you do about it, if anything.
1. Poker is Designed to Keep the Bad Players Playing
In a way, poker is designed to keep the bad players coming back. Even though
poker is a skill game, it does have a short-term luck element involved.
This means that even the players that have absolutely no clue what they are
doing can get rewarded from time to time for their ill-conceived plays.
In psychology, this is called
intermittent reinforcement, and it’s particularly effective in developing compulsive behaviour, or
gambling in this instance.
In other words, players will keep coming back to play because they will win
occasionally, regardless of their knowledge of the game (or lack
thereof).
For example, they’ll play any two suited cards on the off chance of hitting a
flush, or chase an inside straight draw without having any clue about the pot
odds and the actual chance of hitting their miracle card on the river.
Instead, they’ll do certain actions based on superstitions like feeling lucky,
or something like: I missed my last four draws, so I’m bound to hit the next
one.
No and no. In poker, the odds of certain events occurring are always the same,
and don’t change based on previous events.
If you missed your last four flush draws, you’re equally likely to miss the
fifth time as well.
Still, this doesn’t prevent some players from actually believing such claims.
What’s worse yet, sometimes they will actually be rewarded for their
misconceptions.
This can be frustrating, of course, but that’s what makes poker profitable in
the first place.
In fact, bad players getting rewarded for their poor judgment is something you
should celebrate. It means they’re more likely to repeat the same mistake in
the future.
Would you rather they learn their lesson and stop making mistakes?
Of course not. Because this is precisely
why most people lose at poker.
2. Your Poker Skill Edge is Not as Big as You Think
Another reason you might be struggling against bad poker players is the fact
that edges in poker are not nearly as pronounced as you might think.
Even if you have a significant skill edge over your competition, poker fish
virtually always have some sort of hand equity in a given situation.
It’s very rare indeed for a player to be drawing completely dead (i.e. having
no chance of winning the pot whatsoever).
I explain this in much more detail by the way in my recent
ultimate poker odds cheat sheet.
Since a single hand is played across multiple streets (or betting rounds),
there’s almost always a chance of a player outdrawing you.
In fact, it’s often the case that both players have roughly the same amount of
hand equity, give or take a few percentage points.
So even if your hand is a statistical favourite to win, it’s rarely so far
ahead that losing can be unexpected.
This is something that Daniel Negreanu discusses in much more detail in his advanced poker training program.
Here Are a Few Examples to Help Illustrate the Point
You have A♣K♣ and a totally out of control fish on an insane monkey tilt is
shoving all-in preflop every hand he gets.
You snap call and he flips over 9♠8♥. Your hand equity is only 66%, which
means you will lose one out of three times.
Or say you have A♦K♦ and the flop comes:
A♥J♣2♥
And your opponent has something like 7♥6♥
You are a favourite with 63% equity, but it still means you’re going to lose
one out of three times.
As Nathan discussed in his latest video, amateurs make all sorts of basic
betting mistakes.
But this still does not take away their equity (chances of getting lucky
against you, no matter how small it is).
A 5% chance for example, will hit 1 out of every 20 poker hands. Slim odds
yes, but it will happen sometimes.
There are countless more examples like this by the way of bad poker players "getting lucky." I could go on and on!
And in some other poker formats like
Pot Limit Omaha, there are situations where drawing hands are actually a favourite to win
against made hands on the flop, due to the insane amount of outs they can
have.
Talk about getting rivered every time!
The point is, you’re rarely so far ahead in poker that losing with the best
hand is a surprise.
But as mentioned, this is what makes the game profitable, because a lot of bad
players will, in fact, put money in with the mathematical disadvantage.
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Even though the edges are small, they are still significant enough for a
superior player to come out on top over enough iterations. But only if they
can accept the fact that they will lose from time to time.
It’s like playing roulette. When you’re betting on red or black, you don’t
have a 50% percent chance of winning.
Since there’s also a green zero on the roulette wheel, sometimes the ball
won’t land on either black or red, and the casino wins. So your chances of
winning are more like 49%.
This one percentage point may not seem like a lot, but that’s exactly the
point.
This tiny edge allows the casino to be profitable. If you keep playing the
roulette for long enough betting on red or black, you’ll eventually end up
broke, and the casino will take all your money.
There’s no way to beat the house over the long run. That’s just the way the
game is set up. That’s why there are no professional roulette players.
On the other hand, poker can be beaten over the long run, because you’re not
playing against the casino, you’re playing against other people.
If you have a skill edge over them, by using a proven winning poker strategy, then you will beat them more often than not.
But not as often that they won’t be willing to keep coming back for more. So consider yourself a casino running a business the next time a fish sucks
out on you.
Imagine the croupier yelling and berating a customer when they won on the
roulette or blackjack table. They wouldn’t. They’d smile and congratulate
them.
Anything else would be bad for business.
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3. Strength in Numbers - All Poker Fish Are Actually One Giant Fish
If you’re struggling against bad poker players, it could be a sign that you’re
actually playing in profitable games. This might sound counterintuitive, but
hear me out.
The more recreational players there are in a given game, the more likely it is
for some of them to get lucky against you. It’s simple arithmetic.
Consider this very common situation. A recreational player open-limps into the
pot. Recreational players behind him are more likely to limp behind.
You make a big raise hoping to pick up a lot of the dead money, only to get
five calls and a huge multiway pot.
Even if you’re holding pocket Aces, your hand equity goes down significantly because there are so many players involved in the pot.
In fact, as you can see above, if you get 5 callers when you have pocket aces, you odds of winning the pot could be as low as 26%.
In fact, as you can see above, if you get 5 callers when you have pocket aces, you odds of winning the pot could be as low as 26%.
Or to put it another way, you will lose almost 3 out of 4 times. And Pocket Aces is the best hand in the entire game!
I actually wrote an entire article on your odds of having your pocket AA cracked by the way, if you want to learn more about the ugly truth.
Now, this sort of thing is annoying to be sure, but these are exactly the types of player you want at your poker table.
Now, this sort of thing is annoying to be sure, but these are exactly the types of player you want at your poker table.
While they will get lucky against you sometimes (and the more recreational
players, the more likely it is for one of them to beat you), over the long
run, these players will be your primary source of income, even though it may
not seem that way in a given moment.
Think about the action movies where the hero is involved in a gunfight against
dozens of goons armed to the teeth.
He’ll usually come out on top without so much as a scratch, but life isn’t a
movie. In real life, a hero won’t be able to dodge bullets, and he will get
shot, even if he’s the deadliest sharpshooter around.
Same thing with poker. Even if you’re the most talented player at the table,
you still have to dodge bullets from all the other players, and chances are,
you’re going to get hit with a lucky shot sooner or later.
When playing poker, all you can do is put your money in with a mathematical
advantage, and hope for the best.
Getting annoyed and frustrated if the best hand does not win every time can only
cause you to lose more than necessary.
If you struggle with tilt and frustration from bad beats, see my complete guide to dealing with poker variance.
4. Why Do You Struggle Against Bad Poker Players in Particular?
Playing poker against bad players can be frustrating, especially when they
keep getting lucky against you.
Still, it’s far easier and more profitable to endure a couple of bad beats
than to play against opponents that actually know what they’re doing.
Remember, skilled players can get lucky too. I’d rather play poker against a
lucky incompetent player than a lucky and competent one.
Since recreational players will get lucky from time to time (that’s why they
play the game in the first place) and there’s not much you can do about it, it
might be worthwhile to consider why you are struggling with them in
particular.
More precisely, what is it about them exactly that irks you. The answer has
nothing to do with them, and everything to do with how you approach the
game.
Articulating the problem for yourself is the first step to actually solving
it.
Do you feel like they’re stealing your money?
Do you think they shouldn’t be winning as often against you because your level of poker knowledge and skills are way above theirs?
Do you believe it’s not fair for you to lose because you made the right play
and they didn’t?
Is it all of the above, or something else entirely?
There are no right or wrong answers here. Whatever the reasons might be, they
probably do have some merit.
But they still don’t change the fact that when you play poker, you sometimes
lose to inferior competition, and there’s nothing you can really do about it.
What you can change instead is your perspective on the issue, and rework some
of the faulty thinking that is causing you frustration in the first
place.
To do so, you need to figure out what is actually bothering you. It’s
definitely not the fact that some idiot donkey called your bet with incorrect
pot odds and hit his backdoor flush.
It might be the money lost that’s bothering you. If so, are you playing with
the money you’re comfortable with losing?
Are you playing the right stakes within your bankroll? Are you chasing losses
in the games you shouldn’t really be playing?
If you think you’re a better poker player than your opponents, your pride
could be wounded.
In these situations, it’s often the case that your ego is protecting you from
taking a good hard look at your game and seeing you might not be as good as
you think.
It’s easier to say your opponents got lucky than to admit you don’t really
have a firm grasp on light 3-betting or triple-barrel bluffing.
If you really are better than your opponents and are beating your limit over
the long run, an occasional bad beat shouldn’t bother you as much.
In fact, you should welcome it, because it means you’re playing in a
profitable game. If it bothers you to the point it affects your decision
making, you’re playing in the wrong game.
Maybe it’s not the money lost, and maybe you really are better than your
opponents, but you keep getting the short end of the stick over and
over.
If that’s the case, you probably didn’t come to terms with the nature of
variance in poker yet. To say that it’s not fair is an understatement.
It’s brutal, it’s punishing, and it’s definitely not fair. But as bad as it
is, you can always make it a hundred times worse.
How to Beat Bad Poker Players (Final Thoughts)
In short, there is not much you can do about bad players getting lucky against
you. All you can do is put your money in with a mathematical advantage, and
hope it holds up.
Over the long run, you’ll win far more than you will lose, but only if you
accept the cruel reality that you will lose sometimes, even if you did
everything right.
And even if you have studied all of the best advanced poker strategy available these days as well. Fishy players will still beat you sometimes.
Remember that poker is designed to keep the bad players playing.
This means they will get lucky sometimes, because they basically always have
some sort of hand equity. It’s very rare indeed for a player to be drawing
completely dead in a given hand.
What’s more, the edges are sometimes only razor thin, and there are a lot of
situations where the winner of the hand is basically determined by a coinflip,
i.e. both players have roughly 50% chance to win the hand.
But even if your edge is as small as 1%, it’s still enough to be a profitable
long term winner. Long term being the key word, of course.
So while there’s little you can do to increase your chances of winning
coinflips, something you can and should do is to improve how you react to
situations when cards don’t fall your way.
Everyone can play well when the deck is hitting them in the face, even the
fish.
When playing poker, struggle never really ends. The only thing you can do is
struggle better than the rest.
Lastly, if you want to know my complete strategy for crushing bad poker
players, grab a copy of
my free poker cheat sheet.
