What Are the Odds of Pocket Aces Getting Cracked?

What Are the Odds of Pocket Aces Getting Cracked?
Did your pocket aces get cracked again? Are you wanting to know what are the odds of aces getting cracked?

This is something that many of us wonder about when our aces seem to get cracked again and again and again.

So let's just jump right into it!


Is Pocket Aces a Good Hand?


The first thing you should know is that pocket aces is a very good hand, the best hand in the game in fact.

And just because you lost with it, doesn't mean you should limp preflop with it or even fold it next time.

In fact, pocket aces is over an 80% favorite versus all other pocket pairs like KK, QQ, JJ and so on.

And it will also be your biggest long term winning hand in terms of total profit.

You can actually just go check this for yourself by filtering for the profitability of all hands inside a program like PokerTracker.


What Are the Odds of Pocket Aces Getting Cracked?


These are the odds your pocket aces getting cracked:

14.82%

When you are dealt pocket aces you have a 14.82% chance of losing versus a completely random hand.

So in other words, not very often but it will happen from time to time!


Is the Poker Site You Are Playing On Rigged Because Your Pocket Aces Got Cracked Again?


Not necessarily.

A lot of people jump to this quick conclusion without really thinking about the math first.

Like we just mentioned, you actually have almost a 15% chance of losing with pocket aces versus a completely random hand.

And since most people will have something a little bit better than a "completely random hand" versus your pocket aces, they will often have an even higher chance to win against you than this.

This is why when people say that online poker is rigged or some major site like PokerStars is rigged, they often haven't actually thought it through enough.

They are instead just reacting in the moment and not using the rational part of their brain which clearly tells us that pocket aces is not some "invincible" hand.

Your pocket aces will actually lose frequently in poker, this is simply a fact. It does not necessarily mean you are playing on a rigged poker site.


Basic Pocket Aces Odds


Here are some other basic stats you need to know when you have pocket aces:
  • You will be dealt pocket aces 0.0045% of the time (1 in 221 hands)
  • You will lose with pocket aces versus pocket kings approximately 18% of the time
  • You will lose with pocket aces versus a broadway hand like KJ approximately 14% of the time
  • You will lose with pocket aces versus a random suited hand approximately 18% of the time
  • You will lose with pocket aces to ace king approximately 8% of the time
  • You will lose with pocket aces to a suited connector like 98 of hearts approximately 24% of the time

So these are some pretty good odds with pocket aces versus other common hands. This is why most professional poker players actually list pocket aces as their favorite hand!

Daniel Negreanu for example has mentioned this several times before including in his advanced poker training course.


More Important Pocket Aces Odds You Need to Know


Here are some more important odds for pocket aces that I recommend you study and memorize:
  • You will beat a flopped straight draw with pocket aces approximately 65% of the time
  • You will beat a flopped flush draw with pocket aces approximately 61% of the time
  • You will beat a flopped straight flush draw with pocket aces approximately 43% of the time
  • You will beat a flopped two pair hand with pocket aces approximately 24% of the time
  • You will beat a flopped trips hand (three of a kind) with pocket aces approximately 8% of the time

One of the good parts about getting dealt pocket aces is that you almost always have a chance to win.

The odds aren't always great, but there is almost no scenario where you will be drawing completely dead.

Now please don't get me wrong here.

There definitely is a time when you need to fold your pocket aces, like I discuss in this video I made recently:


But for the most part, pocket aces are a great hand to have in almost all situations in Texas Hold'em because even if somebody flops a huge hand against you, you almost always have outs still (chance to win).


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What Are the Odds of Pocket Aces Getting Cracked?
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What Are the Odds of Getting Pocket Aces Twice in a Row?


So we already know that the odds of getting dealt pocket aces are only 1 in 221.

In other words, not good.

But how about the odds of getting dealt pocket aces twice in a row?

The odds of getting dealt pocket aces twice in a row is:

1 in 48,481


And then to take it one step further...

The odds of getting dealt pocket aces three times in a row is:

1 in 10,793,861


So as you can see, the odds of getting dealt pocket rockets twice in a row is exceedingly rare and the odds of getting dealt aces three times in a row is like winning the lottery.


What is the Best Strategy to Win Big With Pocket Aces?


The best pocket aces strategy is to play them hard and fast. This means raising or re-raising with them preflop and then betting big on the flop, turn and river.

From time to time you will need to fold them as I already mentioned above. This is specifically versus very tight and passive players who raise you on the turn or river.

This is something I have discussed in detail before on this blog as well in my guide to when to fold an over pair in poker.

But for the most part, the best strategy with pocket aces is very simple. Play them fast, bet often and bet big with them!


Should You Ever Slow-Play Your Pocket Aces?


What about slow playing your pocket aces? Yay or nay?

In general this is a bad idea especially at the lower stakes. And the reason why is because you miss out on a ton of value.

Most players at these limits like to call way too much and never fold any pair or draw.

This is something that was very clear to see in my recent video series where you can watch me absolutely crush the 1c/2c online cash games.

I have some of the best results of all-time in these games and I can tell you that I almost never slow play my pocket aces.

And this is because the problem with slow playing your pocket aces then is that you will often end up winning a very small pot, when you could have won a much bigger pot by simply betting more.

And over the long run, this really, really starts to add up.

It is really important to remember that when you see world class poker pros like Phil Ivey slow-playing their pocket aces, it is usually because they are playing against another world class pro.

They have to employ some trickery from time to time in order to constantly keep their opponents guessing.

But if you play in the typical small stakes online or live poker games, the best course of action is going to almost always be to avoid slow playing your pocket aces.

Just play them straight-forward every time and you will win much more.


Final Thoughts


So what are the odds of your pocket aces getting cracked?

Well, against a random hand it is almost 15% and can be as high as 25% versus suited connectors for example. This might not sound like much, but it will come through from time to time.

Because the truth is that pocket aces are really just a one pair hand that can be beat.

And this is why it is important not to get too emotionally invested when you get dealt this beautiful hand.

With all that said though, pocket aces are still the best hand in the game and you should play them hard and fast in almost all scenarios.

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What Are the Odds of Pocket Aces Getting Cracked?