The Only Guide to Value Betting in Poker You Need [2024]

It has often been said that one of the biggest keys to success at the micros is value betting. I really couldn't agree more.

Let me explain what that means first.

A value bet in poker is a bet made with the best hand in order to get value from worse hands. It is easy to value bet when you have a strong hand like a flush or a straight. But the poker pros make value bets with weaker hands like middle pair or bottom pair also.

If there is one thing that stands out to me from playing millions of hands at the lower stakes online it is that most people do not know how to get the max value from their mediocre hands or even their good hands in some cases.

This is especially the case when they are playing against fish. Here for example is a hand against a fish where a clear value bet was missed:

So in this article I am going to break it all down for you step by step. You are going to learn exactly when to make a value bet and when to just check.

What is Value Betting in Poker and Why is It Important?

Value betting as mentioned is simply the act of making a bet when you have the best hand. It is usually pretty easy to tell when you are ahead in poker. You have a strong hand such as top pair and your opponent is just calling. Your opponent probably has a draw or perhaps some worse made hand that he is hanging on with.

If your opponent is a recreational player then he could be calling you with anything including no pair/no draw hands. It is even easier at the micros to know where you stand because most players are extremely passive. When they raise you on the big money streets in particular (turn and river) they are very often letting you know that you are behind.

Value betting is extremely important in poker because as you may have noticed by now it is really frigging hard to make a hand like top pair or better! You need to be getting the maximum value out of them when you do.

Also, many of your opponents (especially at the lower end of the micros, NL2, NL5 and NL10) are incapable of folding. They are literally begging to call you with whatever junk they happen to have. You need to give them the opportunity to do just that.

I discuss this in much more detail by the way in my free poker cheat sheet.

One of the biggest ways that people shoot themselves in the foot at these stakes is by thinking that pots will magically build themselves. This is not going to happen in most cases because extremely passive players don't like to bet without a big hand.

They will call you down all day but if you give them the opportunity to check with their middle pair, gutshot or queen high they will usually take it. 

Therefore, please remember this: If you want to win a big pot at the micros you almost always need to build it yourself. Let's look at a couple of common value betting scenarios at the micros versus bad players.

Poker Value Bet Example: NL2 Full Ring

Villain is a 26/7/2 SLP (semi-loose passive) with a 30% WTSD (went to showdown).

Villain limps from UTG+1
Hero raises from the CO with K♥J♠
Villain calls

The flop comes,

J♦6♣8♦

Villain checks
Hero???

First off this should definitely be a standard preflop raise. I don't want to get into a deep discussion of preflop strategy in this article but as I have discussed many times before you should be isolating bad players like this frequently and especially when in position. We actually have a reasonable hand in this example. I would isolate this player with far worse here, half the deck for sure.

So we flop top pair, now what? Well again, this should be a fairly straight forward CBet after the villain checks. As I noted above it is important to build the pot at these limits and not expect a passive fish like this to do it for you.

Checking back here to be "tricky" is a huge mistake at these limits. You don't need to balance anything against a player like this whose only concern is his own two cards and what he thinks of them. Just value bet 100% of the time here.

I also don't want to get into a big discussion of bet sizing in this article. When value betting versus a recreational player it should almost always be 75% of the pot or more. Check out a recent article of mine for more on optimal bet size amounts at these stakes.

Hero CBets

The turn comes,

T♠

Villain checks
Hero???

This isn't the greatest turn card in the deck. It completes a few draws such as 97 and Q9 and perhaps makes a few two pairs such as T8 or JT. However, we always need to remember that these hands only represent a small portion of this player's overall range.

He has plenty of other hands that we beat and he would love to call a bet with them. These include, T9, QJ, QT, J9, A8, K8, Q8, 98, 87, 99 and any two diamonds. I think I am being conservative here. With a bad player like this there definitely could be more hands added to this list.

Hero bets

The river comes,

2♦

Villain checks
Hero???

Once again the river isn't the best card in the deck for us because it completes the flush but it certainly isn't the worst card either. A lot of regs at the micros will freeze up here though and choose to just check behind for the showdown.

This is a major mistake.

You are throwing away EV (expected value) by not making a value bet here. Remember that villain can still have any of those one pair hands that we listed above on the turn. And what do SLP fish with a 30% WTSD like to do? Call of course.

Please don't worry about being check/raised in this spot either. If the opponent here check/raises us we are folding 100% of the time. Why?

Because passive players at the micros do not check/raise the river without the nuts. Most regs today at the lower end of the micros are still not making the bet on the end here. Don't throw away easy money like this. Always value bet here.

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Poker Value Bet Example: NL5 6max

Villain is a 52/12/2 Whale with a 34% WTSD with a 0% Fold to 3Bet.

Villain raises from the CO
Hero 3Bets on the BTN with 9♣9♠
Villain calls

The flop comes,

T♠7♦2♥

Villain checks
Hero???

It is certainly not a crime to just flat preflop here and maybe let some other bad players in. However, since we have a pretty strong hand in position against a fish who doesn't fold anything I would prefer to just juice up the pot here a little bit.

Once again on the flop this is not the time to be getting tricky. Yes there is one overcard but there are simply so many hands that a bad player like this will continue with including ace high.

Hero CBets

The turn comes,

Q♠

Villain checks
Hero???

The turn isn't the best card in the deck but it is not the worst either. While it is another overcard to our pair it does seem odd why somebody would ever have a queen in their hand here though. However, you should never put something like that past a huge whale like this.

We know that a player like this could have easily floated the flop out of position with plenty of no pair/no draw hands which may have a queen in them.

Since this is a 3Bet pot I would recommend just checking behind here in order to prevent the size of the pot from getting out of control. The biggest reason why is because we don't really have a lot to gain by betting here. Villain will likely fold all of the made hands that we beat because it is starting to get really expensive for him to continue.

Conversely, he will happily call along with all of his made hands that beat us and any of the few draws available on this board. Therefore, betting again here is mostly a lose/lose situation for us because we can't get much action from worse hands and we simply build a bigger pot for hands that have us crushed.

Hero checks

The river comes,

6♥

Villain checks
Hero???

This is a classic thin value bet spot. We need to be betting for value here. This hand is similar in many ways to the last one because a passive bad opponent has checked to us on the river. This typically indicates weakness. And as we mentioned before, if he does happen to be sandbagging something big he will let us know and it will be the easiest fold in the world.

Something that I like to mention with regards to thin value betting is that you should be getting looked up from time to time by better hands. If you make a bet here and a recreational player calls and flips over something silly from time to time like QJ or T8 you shouldn't feel like you made a bad play.

See my ultimate poker beginner's cheat sheet for more on this.

If you are not getting looked up by better hands like this on occasion then this should be cause for concern. This is because it is likely that you are not making enough thin value bets. If on the other hand you are frequently getting looked up by better hands then you are probably value betting too thin.

Always remember that these value bets on the river can make a huge difference to your winrate in the long run because they are often for significant amounts like 20bb. If you miss just one of these opportunities every thousand hands a little simple math tells us that you have just thrown away 2bb/100 in EV.

This is an absolutely massive amount in today's games. Don't be like all of the other bad regs in these games and check back without thinking in spots like this.

Final Thoughts

I hope this article helps some of you struggling to make the right value bets at the lower limits. If you aren't having the success that you want right now you should go back to the very basics of this game and ask yourself if you are getting the maximum value from the recreational players.

Always remember that they are the entire reason why we play this game. You should always be making them pay the maximum.

Make sure you pick up a copy of my free poker strategy guide to learn exactly how I beat the lower stakes online for some of the highest winnings ever recorded.


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The Real Reason You Aren't a High Stakes Poker Pro Yet

There is often a belief out there that big winners in poker (especially mid and high stakes pros) have some sort of magical power or super human IQ. I know that I have been guilty of believing this at times as well. That is, putting higher stakes players on a pedestal and thinking that they are somehow far superior to me technically. The reality is that this belief is mostly false.

Something that changed my thinking drastically in this regard happened a few years ago. I was being mentored by a mid/high stakes pro at the time and he was sweating me at NL50. 

He told me that there is actually no substantial difference in technical poker ability between the typical NL50 regs that I was playing against and the NL600 regs that he battled on a daily basis.

Both understand the mechanics of solid TAG or LAG play well. Both read hands reasonably well and both understand some of the basic math behind the game. So why is one player playing at 12 times the stakes as the other then?

Well in truth of course some of those NL50 players will in fact make it to NL600 one day and beyond. The only reason that they are not there yet is because they are still working their way up the ladder in online poker. 

However, the large majority of them will not get there. In fact if you come back two years from now most of them will probably still be playing NL50 or maybe even lower if they don't keep up with the evolution of the games. So again, what is the big difference then?

Well there are a few things in my opinion. 

Bankroll to Move Up

The first thing that we all need in order to move up is the bankroll. Many people at the micros massively stunt their progress by cashing out too much. I know this all too well because I did it myself for many years. 

People would often ask me why I played millions of hands at low stakes and didn't move up more. Well guess what? I had bills to pay! This is why I constantly preach against going pro in this game until you are playing decent stakes and have a large life bankroll saved up as well.

I actually did have both of these at the time when I originally went pro but anyone who has followed my story on this blog knows that I also did not have the discipline to put in the hours back then so I allowed my bankroll and savings to regress to a point where I should no longer be pro. 

I chose to grind low stakes for years instead of getting another job though. But this also killed any chances that I had of moving up because I was cashing out nearly all of my winnings every single month. 

So even if a typical NL50 grinder is winning at a small clip (2bb/100 for instance) if he plays 100k hands a month this equals $1000. 

Add in another $500 for rakeback (very conservative estimate) and he banks $1500 a month. If he does not touch his bankroll for two months then he has 30 buyins for NL100 ($3000) on top of what he already had. 

However, if he can't stop hitting the cash out button you can see that he will never get anywhere. This is especially the case these days when most regs are extremely risk adverse nits. I am guilty here as well. 

Courage to Move Up

This leads me to my second point, having the courage to move up. Often making the jump to a higher stake is really just a mental block more than anything for a lot of people. 

There are many grinders out there today at stakes like NL10, NL25 and NL50 who have tried making the jump to the next limit several times in the past without success. Because of this they have all but given up on even trying any more. They have actually convinced themselves in some cases that they simply can't beat the higher stake! 

This is completely foolish thinking for a number of reasons. Firstly, if you are even a small winner at your current limit, then it only stands to reason that you will be able to beat the higher one as well. The reality is that the players who you think are so big and bad at the higher limit are actually only marginally better than the ones who you battle it out with on a daily basis at your current limit. And let's face it, fish are fish at any limit.

And as I have discussed before moving up is not easy for anybody. Most people fail multiple times before sticking at the higher limit. 

You have to realize that the sample size is always totally insignificant in your move up attempt and routine variance can often be the sole cause of your failure. People often also over-adjust when moving up and this is why I constantly try to warn against changing anything. Just do what has brought you success to this point. 

Taking Shots

Something that I also want to discuss is taking shots. This has sort of been frowned upon by many people over the years because it involves risking significant portions of your bankroll and sort of contradicts the slow and steady approach which I have long suggested as well. But the thing is many mid stakes players and most high stakes players will tell you that they finally broke through in a big way by taking a shot at some point. 

What do I mean by taking a shot? Well if there is a fish sitting alone at a table that is 5 times the stakes that you normally play do you sit down or take a pass? If variance isn't on your side and the fish gets lucky he could decimate your bankroll in a big way. Many high stakes pros have lost half of their bankroll at times by taking shots like this. 

However, if you simply run just normal or good (remember that this happens the majority of the time) then guess what? You could conceivably double or even triple your bankroll over night especially if the fish goes on tilt and keeps reloading. This is like winning a tournament which has also propelled many players ahead early on in their careers. It will allow you to immediately feel much more comfortable playing higher limit games than what you normally play. 

The "Disclaimer"

Now I want to be very clear here. I don't want everybody who reads this post to suddenly start taking shots at NL200 with their $1000 bankroll because they see a fish waiting for action. Nor do I want people to think that extremely aggressive bankroll management is the only way to achieve success in this game.

The truth is that the slow and steady approach still works just fine. There are many examples such as this small/mid stakes crusher who I interviewed earlier this year. He started from the very bottom (NL2) and even though it took several years he is now making good money and has been signed as an instructor by a major training site as well. 

The main point of this article is that you need to step outside your comfort zone at times and take some chances in this game if you want to truly reach your potential. I don't have a ton of experience in mid stakes or high stakes games myself but I know enough to know that there isn't really anything magical that these players have done to get there. Sure, some elite winners are technically better in some areas than others but for the most part they are just trading blinds back and forth, beating up on the bad regs and massacring the fish. This is the exact same thing that goes on in your NL25 or NL50 games.

You need to let your bankroll grow unfettered if you really want to move up in this game. I typically don't suggest that anybody even think about going pro until at least NL50. And like I said you should have a large life bankroll as well (savings) so that you rarely need to touch your poker funds. If you are not able to do this though and need to dip heavily into your winnings each month then you will be the guy who is still playing NL25 two years from now. 

Another reason to keep your day job is so that you have the courage to take more shots at moving up and even jump on opportunities to play against a fish at much higher limits. You can do this when you have a full time job because even if you go broke your bills are still paid and you can simply reload. I have talked about playing poker professionally many times on here and the pros and cons that go along with it. However, many people still choose to go for it way too early and end up paying the consequences for it.

Ultimately You Should Pursue YOUR Goals in This Game

But each situation is unique and I am not here to crush anyone's dreams. I am just here to provide some proper perspective from my experience. I recently came across one of the most hilarious and eye-opening PG&C threads that I have ever seen on 2+2. Two young English guys (early to mid 20's) grinding NL2 and NL5 all day and partying all night in Cambodia.

This seems insane to me and many others given how little they are making. However, anybody who has ever been to Cambodia knows that it basically costs nothing to live in that country. They are also young and having the time of their lives. 

So as they state, for them living on a beach in Cambodia grinding nickels and dimes all day still easily beats working some crappy 9-5 back in cold and rainy England. Who am I to argue with that? 

Pursue your dreams in this game but you should also look at it realistically if you really want to move up one day and get to the real money. And always remember, the real money isn't at the micros.

Lastly, if you are just starting out in poker, check out my ultimate poker beginner's cheat sheet to get winning right away.

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Rakeback Grinding Versus Bumhunting in Today's Small Stakes Online Cash Games

With 2015 nearly in our sights I thought it would be a good idea to talk about two different approaches to small stakes online cash games these days. In one corner you have what I would loosely call the "rakeback grinders." These are people who play high volume. This means 16+ regular tables or 3+ Zoom tables. Often at least half of their actual profits come from rakeback.

On a big site like Pokerstars with a yearly based rakeback program which rewards heavy volume the goal is to reach Supernova for small stakes rakeback grinders. By getting to this level they can then trade their FPPs for cash bonuses, hit milestone cash bonuses and get some other secondary stuff like stellar rewards and tournament entries.

Rakeback programs are different on all poker rooms but the end result is pretty much always the same. Play a lot and they will give you a portion of the rake that you paid back. And at some sites like Pokerstars they will give you a higher percentage depending on how much you play and the stakes that you play at.

For many heavy grinders who get to reasonable stakes (typically at least NL25) this can add up to substantial amounts. Thousands per month by the time they approach mid stakes are certainly possible. If they can manage to just stay breakeven at the tables then obviously this is a decent payoff for them. 

Winrates are often fairly low for rakeback grinders though because when playing this amount of tables it is difficult to give enough proper attention to table selection and making high quality poker decisions.

In the other corner we have the people who I would loosely refer to as "bumhunters." These people play much lower volume. This typically means 1-15 regular tables or 1 or 2 Zoom tables. A much bigger portion of their profit usually comes from winnings made at the poker tables. 

They tend to focus a lot more of their attention on finding the weak spots and making higher quality poker decisions. They can afford to do this because they free up a lot of time by playing much fewer tables than their rakeback grinder counterparts.

I Had to Decide, Rakeback Grinder or Bumhunter?

Famous grinder "ElkY"

Now I used to be firmly in the first category. Anybody who has taken even a casual look through the history of this blog will know that I used to grind 200k+ hands a month at low stakes. While I was able to keep my table winnings fairly high in softer games I was also certainly keen to get those rakeback rewards from heavy volume as well. This worked very well for me for many years. I would simply open up as many tables at the micros as the poker room allowed me to (24 on Pokerstars) and grind for hours on end knowing that I would likely come out ahead and that I would score a bunch of rakeback in the process as well.

About 5 years ago though the games started tightening up. No longer could I just open up 24 random tables at NL25 or NL50 on Pokerstars for instance and expect to print money in my sleep. I actually had to actively table select in order to maintain my previous results. This is not the easiest thing to do when you have this many tables running because your time is obviously limited.

Many of the regs started to gradually get better as well so I had to actually think through hands a little bit more in order to find new ways to exploit them. Again, this is something that works fine when playing 8 tables but not so much when playing 24.

So I eventually got to the point where I had to make a decision. Was I willing to accept a small winrate and big variance while keeping my rakeback rewards or cut the tables substantially and start winning again at the pace that I was formerly used to? For me this was not a very difficult decision because I have been an extremely competitive person my entire life. I play this game to win.

I am not the kind of person who can accept a small winrate with massive variance on a day to day basis. I am well aware that every time I sit down to play poker that I could lose but this should be a rare occurrence in my opinion. With extremely low winrates of say 1bb/100 or 2bb/100 though (which is what most rakeback grinders these days are making) they are probably looking at losing around 40% of their sessions. This is simply unacceptable to me.

So several years ago I did indeed start cutting the tables in a big way and to this day I rarely play on more than 8 at a time. This affords me much more time to find the tables with the fish on them and to make sure that I get the right seat versus them as well. It also gives me the time to dig much deeper into my HUD when I am involved in hands against good regs and find the lines to exploit their weaknesses.

Hello Again #Winning!

After dropping the tables from 24 to 8 my results at the tables also turned around in a big way. I went from grinding out a fairly miserable 2-3bb/100 existence at NL25+ while mass multi-tabling to approaching double digits again and coming away a big winner on most days. This is what appealed to me the most. This approach also reinvigorated my enthusiasm for the game. Rakeback grinding is just not the reason why I started to play this game in the first place. It really saps all of the fun out of it and makes poker seem like too much of a job to me.

But this is just me. You need to decide for yourself how you want to approach this game. Many people are just fine grinding the long hours for rakeback and dealing with heavy variance. If this is you then don't let me persuade you otherwise. Money is money in poker. I don't care how you make it. Rakeback dollars spend just the same as the stack that you took from a fish. If you are able to show a profit in this game (no matter how you do it) then more power to you because you are ahead of the large majority of people already.

Also, keep in mind as well that overall profitability is still higher for most people in small stakes cash games by following the rakeback grinding model. And once you get to mid stakes where Supernova Elite (worth 100K+ USD on it's own) becomes possible on Pokerstars this is just too big of a carrot for many people to resist going after. This is indeed why many professionals still prefer the rakeback grinding model and the long hours and heavy variance that comes with it.

What Approach is Right for YOU?

With 2015 coming up though you should consider what approach that you want to take in the coming year. Because like I said before, some of the big poker rooms run yearly based rakeback programs. Therefore, if rakeback grinding is for you then you should start to plan out your goals early on in the year.

If the bumhunting model is for you though then I think you should start focusing on how you are going to improve in two categories in 2015. Firstly, you need to stay on top of the latest strategies and trends concerning table selection. Finding the fish and getting the right seat versus them has to be a major priority for you at the tables. It needs to be your full time job in fact when playing.

Also, you should spend more time on improving your game because playing against regs is inevitable no matter how elite your bumhunting skills are. This can take many forms. More database reviews, session reviews, quality training videos, books, coaches, forums and poker friends. I want to emphasize the word "quality" here because there is a lot of garbage out there these days. Don't just listen to anybody. Remember that most people actually lose at poker.

Ultimately you need to decide the path that is right for you. While there is likely still more money to be made as a rakeback grinder across the board in today's games, don't expect to crush anything besides NL2 or NL5 nowadays with this approach. What you give up in overall profitability by following the bumhunter model is often balanced out in less obvious ways though by becoming a more skilled poker player overall. There is also a psychological edge to bumhunting as I discussed above that applies to some people (you win more often).

There are clearly pros and cons to both and the ultimate decision needs to be made by you in accordance with your goals and approach to this game. I ran in informal poll the other day on my Facebook page and the results were pretty much split down the middle. I hope this article gave you some food for thought.

If you have any thoughts on rakeback grinding versus bumhunting please leave them below. Which category do you consider yourself to be in? Which is better and why? If you enjoyed this article please "Like" or "Tweet" it below!

Optimal Poker Bet Sizing Strategy (Just Do This!)

Image: flickr.com/photos/auhur

Making effective use of bet sizing at the micros can make a big difference to your bottom line.

Those who have read my first poker book know that I advocate a lot of creativity with bet sizing both preflop and postflop at the lowest limits (NL2 especially).

I don't think that people are quite so stupid less than intelligent at these stakes anymore though so I have since scaled back on some of the crazier suggestions.

However, the principle still remains. There is an optimal bet sizing which will yield the highest EV for every opponent that you face. It is your job to find out what that is.

Before I begin I do need to be clear that I think that most of your bet sizings should standardized these days at the micros. This applies to preflop and on the flop in particular where you will make the large majority of your decisions.

For instance, a lot of people will raise preflop to 3x or 2.5x and then follow it up on the flop with a CBet of about 60% of the pot. I don't think that there is anything wrong with this.

A huge benefit to this strategy is that it saves time. One of the biggest keys to success when multi-tabling online poker is using your time effectively. Debating over the sizing of every routine preflop raise or flop CBet is simply a waste of time.

I don't think that standardizing your bet sizing in all instances at the micros is optimal though and that is what this article is all about.

In What Situations Should You Consider Using Some Non-Standard Bet Sizings?

Well I think clearly against recreational players. It blows my mind when I see good regs at much higher stakes who still do not know how to play optimally against fish.

Here is a perfect example of a hand versus a fish where there were several bet sizing mistakes:

As I have said many times here on my blog, in videos and elsewhere it simply makes no sense at all to standardize your bet sizings or balance your range against a recreational player. Why? Because they are not paying attention to any of this.

See my ultimate poker beginner cheat sheet for more on this by the way.

Most of them don't even know what a range is! Therefore, you should be adjusting your bet sizing upwards when you have it and adjusting it downwards when you don't.

Here are a few examples:

Poker Hand Example - NL5 6max Zoom

Villain is a 56/7/1 (VPIP/PFR/AF) fish.

Villain limps from UTG
Hero raises on the BTN with A♠Q♥
Villain calls

The flop comes,

A♦6♦3♥

Villain checks
Hero???

Betting 60% of the pot here would be ok but it is not optimal. We are up against an extremely bad player who is going to call if he hit any piece of this board. So if he has an ace he is calling literally anything. All aces are in this player's range and we crush most of them.

If he has 6x, 3x, 54, a pocket pair of some kind, a flush draw or even some random gutshot he isn't going anywhere either. We crush all of these hands too. So we should always be betting more here such as 80% of the pot, full pot or even overbetting in some rare instances when a certain dynamic is in place.

It should be noted that a lot of people get hung up in a situation like this because when they make a big bet and their opponent folds they think that it was the bet sizing that "scared them off." This could not be further from the truth. What made them fold is the fact that they had nothing.

You have to remember that bad players still typically need something in order to call. It doesn't matter whether you bet 40% of the pot or 80% of the pot here, if villain has queen high with no draw he probably isn't calling.

For the sake of discussion it should also be noted that if we had nothing here (hero has K♥Q♦ for instance) then we should always bet a smaller amount such as 40% or 50% of the pot. This is because we know that villain isn't going anywhere if he has a piece of the board.

Therefore, we may as well risk the least. A recreational player like this is not taking any notes on your bet sizing. He isn't even using a HUD or paying any attention to how you play. He is looking at his own two cards and the only thing that matters is if he likes them or not.

Standardizing any bet sizings against a player like this is simply throwing away EV. You should simply adjust your bet sizing according to your hand strength.

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Poker Hand Example - NL10 Full Ring Zoom

Villain is a 48/27/3 maniac with a 0% fold to 3Bet.

Villain raises to 3x from MP
Hero is in the CO with K♦K♣

Hero???

Here is another simplistic example against a bad player but with a preflop decision this time. We should be 3Betting here 100% of the time. Balancing our play by flatting on occasion in a spot like this just doesn't make any sense. This sort of player is not paying any attention to our button flatting range.

So how much should we make it then? Well, making a standard 3Bet to 9x here is ok but it is not optimal.

Why?

Because this is the type of player who does not fold to 3Bets at all (0%). Since we have the second best starting hand in hold'em we should always be taking advantage of this.

We should therefore always be adjusting our 3Bet sizing upwards here. I would make it 4x minimum or even more if it is clear that this player is simply not folding at all.

Always adjust for the situation and the opponent in poker. The "standard play" is often not optimal. All situations are different in poker and the truly cerebral poker player has very few standard plays in his arsenal.

What About Bet Sizing Versus Regs?

Image: flickr.com/photos/123147187@N03

When facing a more capable opponent, such as the multitude of different regs that you will encounter at the micros, there is definitely a lot of benefit to be had by looking for an optimal bet sizing as well.

Now we aren't going to get away with any of the ridiculous oversized 3Bets or full pot flop CBets like we just discussed versus the fish.

This is because most regs will see right through it. I would just standardize my bet sizings for the most part versus them on these two streets (preflop and on the flop). However, on the later streets there is plenty of room to experiment with some more creative amounts.

The turn and the river in particular are the two streets where most regs at the micros are really lacking. A lot of them are simply multi-tabling robots who are masters of the raise preflop and CBet the flop game.

They will barrel sometimes on the later streets and make the odd call if they think somebody is bluffing them. However, for the most part they don't like to face a lot of confrontation and will often make the "safe play" and fold if they don't have the nuts.

We would like to get the max value out of our made hands though and have the highest possible success rate with our bluffs.

The typical 60% of the pot bet sizing or 2.5x raise (which they are used to) are ok but once again they are often not optimal for our stated goals here.

What if we instead over-raised them on the turn in some spots? What if we mini-raised them? What if we CBet 25% of the pot? What if we just went all in?

Their heads will explode.

Always remember that this is "no limit" hold'em. There are no rules. Let's look at a few spots versus some typical bad regs and ask ourselves not what the standard play is but what the optimal play is.

Poker Hand Example - NL2 6max Zoom

Villain is a 19/15/2 weak TAG with a 40% fold to flop CBet and a 60% fold to turn CBet.

Hero raises to 3x from MP with A♦T♦
Villain calls from the button

The flop comes,

4♦8♣Q♥

Hero CBets 60% of the pot
Villain calls

The turn comes,

K♠

Hero???

This is a great turn card to double barrel on against a weaker TAG opponent like this so we will almost always be firing again. The question is how much though?

Well, I tend to bet on the higher side versus a lot of regs when barreling just to let them know that I am serious and that it is going to cost them if they want to continue. So my typical bet sizing here would probably be around 70% of the pot.

However, in this situation we caught a great turn scare card which also gave us a bit more equity (gutshot to the nuts). We also are up against a player who folds less than most on the flop and more than most on the turn. We simply don't need to bet so much in a spot like this.

So I think it is perfectly reasonable to get away with a turn CBet of as little as 40% of the pot here. It is important to note that I would do this with a really wide range as well.

When we know that our turn CBet is probably going to be effective a lot of the time we simply don't need to bet as much. We should exploit this by having a wide bluffing range as well.

Versus a more sticky reg I might either opt for a larger bet sizing or even look at the effectiveness of check/raising instead. Remember, this is all about making the optimal bet sizing versus a specific player type.

In fact, making the optimal bet sizing in all situations is something that I talk about in much more detail in my latest book, The Micro Stakes Playbook.

Because it is so incredibly important if you want to succeed in today's low and mid stakes poker games.

Poker Hand Example - NL25 Full Ring Zoom

Villain is a 14/11/3 typical TAG with a WTSD% of 23.

Villain raises to 3x from UTG+1
Hero calls from the CO with 3♦3♥

The flop comes,

6♥2♠T♠

Villain CBets 60% of the pot
Hero calls

The turn comes,

2♣

Villain checks
Hero checks

The river comes,

8♠

Villain bets 50% of the pot
Hero???

This is a pretty typical flat preflop for the set-mine/outplay in position versus a reg. We don't improve on the flop but this is still a pretty good board to float on. It probably didn't hit his range very hard and we can rep the flush draw as well.

We figure that we can simply take it away somehow later with position as well so it's an easy call (or even raise).

On the turn a meaningless card falls and villain checks to us. This is a spot where I would just make a bet a large amount of the time.

I think it is ok to just check back from time to time as well though because it is hard to rep anything and our opponent may just go into check/call mode with a mid or high pair.

On the river which completes the flush villain bets out half the pot. Hand reading in a spot like this should tell us that a weak player is probably going for some thin value with a mid to high pair here.

It is very unlikely that he has any sort of nut hand though. Nevertheless, if we call, we almost always lose.

So the optimal play here is clearly to bluff raise. How much though? We can see that this particular player is sort of middle of the road as far as regs go for showdown rate at 23%.

He typically needs a pretty strong hand to go to showdown but might be capable of making the big call once in awhile as well if he thinks that we are bluffing. But he is used to facing a typical re-raise size here of 2.5x or so.

What if we made it 4x instead though? How happy is he going to feel about making the hero call with his JJ or QQ then? That is a big scary bet for a weak reg who has a good hand but not the nuts.

Even though we aren't repping a huge amount of hands here there are enough to put some serious thoughts in his head. The flush hit and we could have boated up with 88 or sandbagged a monster from previous streets as well.

The larger sizing will perhaps be enough to convince him to let me have it this time and "look for a better spot."

Final Thoughts

The point of this article should hopefully be clear. Standard bet sizings are not bad but they are rarely optimal at the micros especially against fish and bad regs.

In fact most good modern advanced poker training programs place a heavy focus on finding the optimal bet sizing in all situations.

And this is because it is incredibly important for your success against other decent players these days in low and mid stakes games.

I should mention that against good regs I typically do keep almost all of my bet sizings standardized. When you are dealing with the handful of solid regs who are big winners at these stakes it is reasonable to expect them to see through a lot of these shenanigans.

I therefore, prefer to keep my play as GTO (game theory optimal) as possible against them no matter what I have.

You should always be trying to maximize your winrate versus the low hanging fruit at the micros though (fish and bad regs). One way that we can do this is by looking for the bet sizing which is likely to yield the highest long term EV.

I emphasize the phrase "long term" because you have to remember that even though you may not have gotten the result that you wanted this time, it does not mean that the bet sizing was necessarily bad. You have to always think long term and ask yourself what the EV is over 10 hands, 100 hands or more.

And also remember that when betting for value bad players typically need to have something in order to call you.

A lot of newer players will mistakenly slow play or bet too small with big hands because they fail to understand this point. It was not your action which made them fold. You didn't "scare the off."

It was simply the fact that they had nothing.

Lastly, if you want to learn how to start consistently making $1000 per month in low stakes poker games, make sure you grab a copy of my free poker cheat sheet.


Let me know in the comments what you think of the bet sizing discussion in this article and in the examples above. Agree, disagree? Is there a better way?