Monday, December 22, 2014

How to Value Bet Effectively at the Micros

Value Betting Micro Stakes Poker
It has often been said that one of the biggest keys to success at the micros is value betting. I really couldn't agree more. If there is one thing that stands out to me from playing millions of hands at these stakes it is that most regs do not know how to get the max value from their good hands. This is especially the case when they are playing against fish. I thought it would be a good time to revisit this topic because the holiday season is upon us and this is the time of year when you will find some of the biggest whales on earth at the poker tables.


What is Value Betting in Poker and Why is It Important?


Value betting is simply the act of making a bet when you have the best hand. It is usually pretty easy to tell when you are ahead in poker. You have a strong hand such as top pair and your opponent is just calling. Your opponent probably has a draw or perhaps some worse made hand that he is hanging on with. If your opponent is a recreational player then he could be calling you with anything including no pair/no draw hands. It is even easier at the micros to know where you stand because most players are extremely passive. When they raise you on the big money streets in particular (turn and river) they are very often letting you know that you are behind.

Value betting is extremely important in poker because as you may have noticed by now it is really frigging hard to make a hand like top pair or better! You need to be getting the maximum value out of them when you do. Also, many of your opponents (especially at the lower end of the micros, NL2, NL5 and NL10) are incapable of folding. They are literally begging to call you with whatever junk they happen to have. You need to give them the opportunity to do just that.

One of the biggest ways that people shoot themselves in the foot at these stakes is by thinking that pots will magically build themselves. This is not going to happen in most cases because extremely passive players don't like to bet without a big hand. They will call you down all day but if you give them the opportunity to check with their middle pair, gutshot or queen high they will usually take it. Therefore, please remember this: If you want to win a big pot at the micros you almost always need to build it yourself. Let's look at a couple of common value betting scenarios at the micros versus bad players.

NL2 Full Ring


Villain is a 26/7/2 SLP (semi-loose passive) with a 30% WTSD (went to showdown).

Villain limps from UTG+1
Hero raises from the CO with K♥J♠
Villain calls

The flop comes,

J♦6♣8♦

Villain checks
Hero???

First off this should definitely be a standard preflop raise. I don't want to get into a deep discussion of preflop strategy in this article but as I have discussed many times before you should be isolating bad players like this frequently and especially when in position. We actually have a reasonable hand in this example. I would isolate this player with far worse here, half the deck for sure.

So we flop top pair, now what? Well again, this should be a fairly straight forward CBet after the villain checks. As I noted above it is important to build the pot at these limits and not expect a passive fish like this to do it for you. Checking back here to be "tricky" is a huge mistake at these limits. You don't need to balance anything against a player like this whose only concern is his own two cards and what he thinks of them. Just value bet 100% of the time here.

I also don't want to get into a big discussion of bet sizing in this article. When value betting versus a recreational player it should almost always be 75% of the pot or more. Check out a recent article of mine for more on optimal bet size amounts at these stakes.

Hero CBets

The turn comes,

T♠

Villain checks
Hero???

This isn't the greatest turn card in the deck. It completes a few draws such as 97 and Q9 and perhaps makes a few two pairs such as T8 or JT. However, we always need to remember that these hands only represent a small portion of this player's overall range. He has plenty of other hands that we beat and he would love to call a bet with them. These include, T9, QJ, QT, J9, A8, K8, Q8, 98, 87, 99 and any two diamonds. I think I am being conservative here. With a bad player like this there definitely could be more hands added to this list.

Hero bets

The river comes,

2♦

Villain checks
Hero???

Once again the river isn't the best card in the deck for us because it completes the flush but it certainly isn't the worst card either. A lot of regs at the micros will freeze up here though and choose to just check behind for the showdown. This is a major mistake. You are throwing away EV (expected value) by not making a value bet here. Remember that villain can still have any of those one pair hands that we listed above on the turn. And what do SLP fish with a 30% WTSD like to do? Call of course.

Please don't worry about being check/raised in this spot either. If the opponent here check/raises us we are folding 100% of the time. Why? Because passive players at the micros do not check/raise the river without the nuts. Most regs today at the lower end of the micros are still not making the bet on the end here. Don't throw away easy money like this. Always value bet here.

NL5 6max


Villain is a 52/12/2 Whale with a 34% WTSD with a 0% Fold to 3Bet.

Villain raises from the CO
Hero 3Bets on the BTN with 9♣9♠
Villain calls

The flop comes,

T♠7♦2♥

Villain checks
Hero???

It is certainly not a crime to just flat preflop here and maybe let some other bad players in. However, since we have a pretty strong hand in position against a fish who doesn't fold anything I would prefer to just juice up the pot here a little bit. Once again on the flop this is not the time to be getting tricky. Yes there is one overcard but there are simply so many hands that a bad player like this will continue with including ace high.

Hero CBets

The turn comes,

Q♠

Villain checks
Hero???

The turn isn't the best card in the deck but it is not the worst either. While it is another overcard to our pair it does seem odd why somebody would ever have a queen in their hand here though. However, you should never put something like that past a huge whale like this. We know that a player like this could have easily floated the flop out of position with plenty of no pair/no draw hands which may have a queen in them.

Since this is a 3Bet pot I would recommend just checking behind here in order to prevent the size of the pot from getting out of control. The biggest reason why is because we don't really have a lot to gain by betting here. Villain will likely fold all of the made hands that we beat because it is starting to get really expensive for him to continue. Conversely, he will happily call along with all of his made hands that beat us and any of the few draws available on this board. Therefore, betting again here is mostly a lose/lose situation for us because we can't get much action from worse hands and we simply build a bigger pot for hands that have us crushed.

Hero checks

The river comes,

6♥

Villain checks
Hero???

This is a classic thin value bet spot. We need to be betting for value here. This hand is similar in many ways to the last one because a passive bad opponent has checked to us on the river. This typically indicates weakness. And as we mentioned before, if he does happen to be sandbagging something big he will let us know and it will be the easiest fold in the world.

Something that I like to mention with regards to thin value betting is that you should be getting looked up from time to time by better hands. If you make a bet here and a recreational player calls and flips over something silly from time to time like QJ or T8 you shouldn't feel like you made a bad play. If you are not getting looked up by better hands like this on occasion then this should be cause for concern. This is because it is likely that you are not making enough thin value bets. If on the other hand you are frequently getting looked up by better hands then you are probably value betting too thin.

Always remember that these value bets on the river can make a huge difference to your winrate in the long run because they are often for significant amounts like 20bb. If you miss just one of these opportunities every thousand hands a little simple math tells us that you have just thrown away 2bb/100 in EV. This is an absolutely massive amount in today's games. Don't be like all of the other bad regs in these games and check back without thinking in spots like this.

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I hope this article helps some of you struggling to make your mark at the lowest limits. If you aren't having the success that you want right now you should go back to the very basics of this game and ask yourself if you are getting the maximum value from the recreational players. Always remember that they are the entire reason why we play this game. You should always be making them pay the maximum.

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How to Value Bet Effectively at the Micros

15 comments:

  1. Another great post! Thanks!!

    I am working my way through your first book and have also bought your second.

    I am prepping myself for NL, but am playing 25-50 cent limit right now.

    I consistently am playing against opponents who stay in with just junk but too often manage to hit a winning hand on the turn and river. Even if they eventually go broke playing this way another like player takes their place.

    Any advice to thwart these players?

    Thanks!

    Chris

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    1. Thanks Chris! It has been a long time since I played limit hold'em regularly but yes this tends to happen more in that game. You just have to keep pushing mathematical edges with the knowledge that you will win in the long run.

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    2. Thanks for the pep talk! I will keep at it. At least I am playing just above break-even which is better than losing!!

      Loving your first book. I printed out your starting hand chart and keep it next to the laptop. I am making a betting chart based on your advice next. I am using PT4 for hand review and using your Lite HUD. If/when I start winning regularly I should send you a cut!

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    3. Haha no need Chris. Glad to hear that CTM is helping. All the best when you start with the no limit games.

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  2. Man, you spooked me... It seems that when I am having trouble with some spot in my game, there you are, writing about it!!
    Thank you!!
    Yes, I am one of those IP guys who fear the check raise on the river from the one fish checking and calling.
    I guess it is for me just like Tri "slowhabit" Nguyen wrote in one of his books: I give people too much credit...
    But you are right, problem is me, not the fish.
    And what should concern me also, is that some other good players may see this leak and play accordingly, Ii know, it´s low stakes but not all of them are bad players.

    Thanks again Nathan!!!

    Guillermo

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  3. Hi nathan. .what about the bet size? R u going for standard 2/3 bet or something like 1/3 to encourage more calls?

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    1. It really depends on what I think they can call with. If there are a lot of hands in their range that will look me up then I will make it 2/3 or 3/4. If I think that they will be mostly hero calling me with a third pair or ace high then I might bet as little as 1/4 pot or 1/3 pot.

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  4. On the first hand it was a little ugly looking but at least you had top pair with a good kicker, so if he does have AJ/JT it just is what it is, if he was on the flush draw and check raises, again easy fold. The second hand is the situation that gets me. I could go either way on 3betting the 9's, although I like just calling and hoping the blinds come in and give good odds to flop a set and hopefully win a monster pot. Plus still have position the rest of the hand.

    What I find is people call 3bets with any two cards. I'd say 90-95% of my 3bets are called(I play nl5 and 10 on Bovada) and i usually 3bet close to pot. When he check/calls a T high flop(3/4 pot bet?) I am NOT liking it. I'm worried it's one of those situations where you are going to be way behind and you're going to be betting his hand for him unless a 9 comes. When the Q comes it totally sucks cause another thing I've found is they are calling me down with AK/AQ/KQ/KJ/QJ no pair or draw. So I'm with you on the KJ hand, but in my experience I'm gonna get burned on that 99 hand more often than not, it's just too thin for me. This is one of the most frustrating aspects of the micros, is almost literally NEVER being able to just 3bet and induce a fold, they just call and then you have no clue where in the hell they are postflop. If they don't fold to flop aggression, gotta go into "Uh-Oh" mode without a pretty big hand in 3bet pots...Thanks for your work as always!

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    Replies
    1. Thanks for your thoughts and the kind words Adam :)

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  5. Hi Nathan, i am a new player and I'm thinking about buy your 1st book "crushin the microstakes", but my fear is the information of the book be outdated. Also read someone in a forum who said that the book has an updated of 2013 or something.

    I like to know if this is true, and If it's possible to beat the micros 2-5 at 15bb/100 with the book.

    I would appreciate your sincerity on the answer.

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    1. Hi Oscar,

      Crushing the Microstakes is still highly relevant to the NL2 and NL5 games today as well as low stakes live games. It includes the strategies and approach that I used to post some of the highest winrates and winnings in history in these games. Yes, I did also make some small updates to the book in 2013.

      I don't want to speculate on winrates because it depends on the reader and how willing they are to apply the information at the tables.

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  6. I really appreciate your blog. As someone previously posted, every time I'm about to go nuts and eat my keyboard you post something about what I just experienced or am trying to understand. And it reminds me that I'm new and I just have to keep looking ahead down the long road ahead.

    Because of that, I hesitate to ask what is undoubtedly a nub question that I hope will not be annoying. And since I'm going to do it I guess I'll double down and ask two. (be gentle)

    I thought I read somewhere in your blog about how to use the winning percent odds (odds of winning the hand) in relation to the pot odds to determine the amount I should bet. But I can't seem to find it. I'm probably mistaken, maybe it was in relation to EV? Or am I completely off the mark?

    In regards to value betting. When I'm looking at the percent chance of winning the hand I also look at how many people are in the hand. If 3 people are in the hand and I have a 33% or less chance of winning the hand, I see that as a three way coin flip and the pot odds become less important. I usually won't bet into that situation or call a big bet. If the opposite is true and I have a number higher than the 33% (still 3 players) I'm more willing to bet or call. The higher the win% in relation to the number of players the more important pot odds become and the bigger the bet I'd be willing to make or call.

    Is that a correct interpretation of the win% stat?
    Is that the right way to view the relationship of win% to pot odds?
    Or am I completely off-base here as well?

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