Firstly, thanks for all the support on the book guys. It's been very motivating to see all the encouragement and advice on Dragthebar, Twitter and here on my blog. I asked people to give me some ideas on what they might want to see in it and I got this response on DTB.
"Make sure you include when to fold. Of all the books out there, I don’t remember one that included when to fold if you get played back at and why. The just assumed a beginner would know or thought it was elementary."
Well firstly, yes I talk about this a ton in the book. But in advance of that I thought I would go over a few common scenarios where this situation may come up.
You raised preflop from MP and got called by a nit in the blinds. Stacks are 100bb effective.
The nit has stats that look something like this,
- VPIP= 10
- PFR = 8
- AF= 2
The flop comes,
This is a standard cbet spot. You should bet around 75% of the pot.
The nit calls.
The turn brings the,
You bet again and he raises.
A couple things about this situation. Firstly, I would not always bet here again on this turn. I know this sounds crazy right? We have QQ, wtf! Valuetown!
But you have to consider this player type's range. A 10/8 set miner type nit is usually playing 18 or 24 tables at once and is just looking for nut hands. Usually their fold to cbet % is pretty high (70% or more) and they are often fairly passive as well.
When this type of player calls you on that flop some alarm bells should go off in your head. There is no flush draw. And there are no actual draws besides 54 and 78, neither of which are likely to be in his range.
His range is going to be heavily populated by hands like small to medium sized pocket pairs and maybe a couple big broadways. And especially at the micros, these types of players often only 3bet with a very small range (QQ+ and AK) so JJ could easily be in his range here too.
Taking all of these factors into consideration, I think that checking behind here on the turn is a perfectly viable play. Don't get me wrong, betting is ok as well but you have to be ready to fold when he raises.
And that is the point of this post of course. Should you continue when this nit check raises you on the turn here? Absolutely not. Players at the micros in general don't check raise turns without nut hands, and a nit with an AF of 2 who is 22 tabling is even less likely to do so.
Probably a pretty straightforward scenario. Let's look at one that is maybe a little closer.
You raised from LP and got called by a fish in the blinds. Stacks are 75bb effective.
The fish has stats that look something like this,
- VPIP = 45
- PFR = 11
- AF = 2
The flop comes,
And the fish leads into you for pot.
If you have any kind of a decent sample on the villain I often have a look at their donk bet% in this spot to get an idea of their range.
Make sure you have a decent sample size like I said. If he has only had 2 opportunities to do a donk bet (the number in brackets to the right) then it's probably not a good idea to put much stock into it. But if you have a sample and his donk bet is something like 50%, then you will know that there is a lot of draws, weak pairs and complete air in his range.
Now the pot sized lead definitely adds a little to the situation as well. Fish generally like to lead huge on the flop with a hand that is ok but not great, especially top pair no kicker or a flush draw. We are well ahead of either of these.
That doesn't mean I would raise here every time. I think raising just folds out a lot of this range and keeps in the portion that beats us. I would just call the flop and ship over on most turns. It's interesting of course if another club comes and he bombs it. I would probably fold most of the time.
You raise from MP and get called by a TAG in LP. Effective stacks are 100bb.
The TAG has stats that look something like this,
- VPIP = 15
- PRF = 12
- AF = 3
The flop comes,
You bet the flop and he raises.
This situation is a lot closer than the other two because this player type has the most balanced range here. That is, he has a couple nut hands, a couple overpairs that beat us as well as quite a few draws, semi bluff's and a couple outright bluffs with just an over or two.
I would say that a good case can be made for not even cbetting at all here. As he can also do this with any Ace and have decent equity against us here as well. Against a player with an AF of 3 or more (usually TAG's and Maniacs), you need to expect that you are going to get raised by a wider range of hands than against most player types.
Since we have an extremely difficult hand to play (we are going to hate almost every turn and river card that comes) and we are OOP, I think that simply check/folding is a perfectly fine play here. Something that I try to talk a lot about in my videos and coaching etc is making a decision early in a hand so that you are not putting in a bunch of dead money, just so you can fold later.
When you know the hand is going to be extremely difficult to win, giving up early is sometimes the best approach.
I hope that you guys got something from these examples. I would love to hear some feedback on what you guys think about these situations or anything else that you would like me to talk about. Thanks for reading!
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