Friday, March 11, 2011

Goddamn I run good!

Somebody asked me awhile back in the comments what my EV was for each limit. So I checked it out in HEM and found out that I was down about $500 over my last 2 million hands. This seems a little excessive since:

1) Its a huge sample

and

2) I played 75% of those hands at NL2 and NL5.

And in the small amount of hands that I have played this year I have run very poorly as well. Its very disheartening as most any regular poker player knows and can have devastating effects on your game.

But when I posted those numbers in the comments...

Here again:

NL2 + 62 buyins
NL5 - 28 buyins
NL10 + 1 buyin meaningless sample
NL25 - 29 buyins
NL50 + 8 buyins
NL100 - 2 buyins meaningless sample

...I didn't even look at the buyin amounts. I was simply fixated on the number $500. Negative $500.

But, if I count the EV in terms of buyins won or lost I am actually ahead by 12 of them (7 now as of the writing of this post) over those 2 million hands! I am running above average! Thats right, I run good! I'm just down a bunch of money because most of my run bad has come at higher limits.

But I think the EV of buyins is a much truer measure of your overall luck than total money won/lost because the latter can easily get skewed by your higher limit results as in my case. Unfortunately I don't know how to easily display this in HEM (hence the manual counting above) although you can graph in big blinds and big bets.

I don't want to ever look at these stupid numbers again. I always had them turned off in HEM for that reason. I see countless poker players whine and whine and whine some more about them. Yet twist them around and you might actually be running good.

This is a quote from Nanonoko the other day on 2+2 when asked how he thinks he runs:

"I think I run well but that's cuz I'm an optimist. Being a pessimist tends to hamper your performance in a lot of things..."
I totally agree. As far as I am concerned I run like God all the time. And don't let me ever try and convince you otherwise again ;p

Nathan Williams aka "BlackRain79" is a microstakes grinder, poker coachDragTheBar instructor and the author of Crushing the Microstakes. Now available in Spanish and Russian as well.


7 comments:

  1. Sorry i ask you about your Ev :).It's amazing how many opinions you get from players on Ev and should you be running close to it or not :} .Hope your having a good month .
    Thanks Chris

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  2. Haha no problem at all. Ya, I think its just wasted energy. I know because I've spent far too much time worrying about it over the years =/

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  3. Hey Nathan! wasup my man, good to see u at NL2 at a few of my tables! u been killing it lately and so have i. On ptr me and you were number 1 and 2 for the day with $26 and $25 respectably. I just want to thank you for crushing the games down there, since i met you i have studied ur game substancially to try and get better and its paying off!

    TYVM for all your help so far!

    Betidiots

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  4. Thank PTR not me haha. Nice job, glad its going well for you.

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  5. Are you going to attempt to move up in stakes at all this year? I know you could beat 100nl easy.

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  6. Yup. Trying again now. We all got our issues right? Else we'd all be playing NL5k. I'm no different and negative variance when I try to move up continues to haunt me. I'm trying to battle through though.

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  7. hello i see you are back at NL25 another dark blue marked reg (solid) on tables :):) im finally winning at NL25 and i was holding first place in this year winnings in NL10 when i played NL10, maybe we can talk some hands if you want through email etc

    i gonna grind hard these days(8hours+) to catch some milestone bonus from pokerstars promotion

    gl at tables

    magorko

    ReplyDelete